Scientists Reveal: Increased 'Close Friendships' Drive Societal Polarization

The Curious Case of Connectedness: Why More Friends Might Be Making Us More Divided

A fascinating new study, emerging from the intellectual hub of the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, offers a compelling, albeit counterintuitive, explanation for the alarming surge in societal polarization we've witnessed in recent years. Researchers Stefan Turner and his colleagues have pinpointed a critical period, roughly between 2008 and 2010, as the genesis of this stark societal divide. Coinciding with this societal schism was a significant expansion in the average person's social circle – a leap from a tight-knit group of two close confidants to a more expansive network of four to five.

The Unfolding Social Fabric: From Intimacy to Fragmentation

"The core puzzle we, and indeed many nations, are grappling with is precisely why polarization has intensified so dramatically in recent times. And this escalation was abrupt, occurring between 2008 and 2010," states Turner, highlighting the perplexing nature of this modern phenomenon. To unravel this enigma, the scientists delved into the evolving landscape of social media, paying particular attention to how intimate friendships have been reshaped. For decades, sociological research consistently indicated that individuals, on average, maintained around two close friends who could profoundly influence their opinions on critical matters. However, as explained by fellow Complexity Science Hub researcher Jan Korbel, this paradigm shifted around 2008, with the average number of close friends blossoming to four or five.

Through sophisticated modeling, grounded in real-world data, the researchers discovered a fundamental principle: as the density of interaction networks increases with a greater number of connections between individuals, internal polarization inevitably escalates. The implications of this finding are profound, offering a potential foundational explanation for the peculiar brand of polarization observed simultaneously across many parts of the globe – a trend that poses a palpable threat to democratic ideals.

The Paradox of Proximity: Increased Connections, Increased Conflict

When individuals become more intimately interconnected, they are naturally exposed to a wider array of differing opinions. This increased exposure, while seemingly a catalyst for understanding, paradoxically often leads to heightened friction and, consequently, to a more polarized society. While polarization has always been an inherent characteristic of human communities, its contemporary manifestation is notably more potent and deeply entrenched. This surge in interconnectedness has birthed small, tightly-knit enclaves that champion opposing viewpoints, often with minimal cross-interaction.

"This discovery greatly impressed us, as it could provide a fundamental explanation for the peculiar form of polarization we are currently observing simultaneously in many parts of the world, which is undoubtedly a threat to democracy. When people are more closely connected, they encounter different opinions more often. This inevitably leads to an increase in conflicts and, therefore, to greater societal polarization," explains Turner.

The researchers meticulously analyzed data from extensive surveys on polarization and social networks. To quantify political polarization, they utilized over 27,000 surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center, which consistently tracks the political leanings of Americans. The immense value of this data lies in the stability of its questions over time, enabling robust long-term comparisons.

The Digital Dawn: Social Media's Role in the Great Divide

The study revealed a clear trend: political viewpoints became increasingly one-sided between 1997 and 2017. For instance, in 1999, a mere 14% of respondents consistently held liberal views; by 2017, this figure had climbed to 31%. Conversely, only 6% of respondents consistently held conservative views in 1999, a number that rose to 16% by 2017. This indicates a growing tendency for Americans to align firmly with a single political camp, eschewing a nuanced blend of liberal and conservative perspectives.

To dissect the intricacies of friendship dynamics, the researchers synthesized data from 30 distinct surveys, encompassing over 57,000 participants from both the United States and European nations. Despite minor variations between individual surveys, the data consistently demonstrated a significant rise in the average number of close friendships, from 2.2 in 2000 to 4.1 in 2024. The study's seminal contribution lies in its ability to reconcile these two phenomena through a sophisticated mathematical social model. This model illustrates how an increase in connections precipitates a sudden surge in polarization once a critical density is breached – akin to a phase transition in physics, such as water freezing into ice. The existence of such phase transitions within societies is, frankly, astonishing. While the precise location of these critical thresholds requires further refinement, the findings suggest that for close relationships, this tipping point lies somewhere between three and four individuals.

The Erosion of Tolerance and the Path Forward

The period between 2008 and 2010, marked by this dramatic increase in polarization, coincided with the widespread adoption of social media and smartphones. This technological revolution fundamentally altered interpersonal interactions, indirectly fueling the societal divide. "Democracy depends on the participation of all segments of society in decision-making, which requires everyone to be able to communicate with each other. But when groups can no longer communicate, this democratic process breaks down. If I have two friends, I do everything I can to keep them – I am very tolerant towards them. But if I have five, and a relationship with one of them becomes difficult, it's simpler to end that friendship because I have 'spares.' I no longer need to be so tolerant," elaborates Stefan Turner.

This dynamic leads to a gradual erosion of baseline tolerance within society. To combat further societal fragmentation, Turner emphasizes the critical importance of early education in navigating diverse opinions and actively cultivating tolerance. The groundbreaking results of this research have been published in the esteemed journal PNAS.