Ukraine's IT Sector at a Crossroads: Survey Reveals 48% Consider Emigration Amid War Concerns

IT Professionals Eyeing Exodus: Nearly Half Consider Leaving Ukraine, Survey Reveals

A recent comprehensive survey by DOU has shed light on the complex and evolving sentiments surrounding emigration among Ukrainian IT specialists. While the headlines might suggest a mass exodus, the reality is far more nuanced, with a significant portion of professionals grappling with decisions influenced by war, personal circumstances, and future aspirations.

The Emigration Equation: More Than Just Open Borders

The survey data paints a complex picture: 48% of IT professionals are contemplating emigration, a figure remarkably similar to the 48% who definitively rule out leaving. This suggests a population largely divided, with a substantial segment weighing their options rather than being resolute. The desire to relocate isn't uniform; men express a stronger inclination to leave than women. Conversely, those holding military exemptions or deferments show a greater tendency to remain within Ukraine. Geographically, IT specialists in the eastern and southern regions exhibit the highest rates of planned departure.

Digging deeper into the motivations, a stark distrust in government and a pervasive sense of insecurity emerge as primary drivers for considering a move abroad. For those already outside Ukraine, the decision to return is far from settled, with nearly half still undecided.

Shifting Sands of Intent: A Closer Look at Emigration Plans

Over the past year, the overarching sentiment regarding emigration has remained relatively stable, with 48% of IT professionals entertaining the idea – a slight dip from 51% in 2024. This cohort breaks down further:

• A determined 2% are actively preparing to leave in the immediate future.
• Another 12% plan to depart as soon as border restrictions are lifted.
• A significant 26% are in the contemplation phase, with no concrete actions yet taken.
• A further 8% express a desire to experience life abroad temporarily, with the intention of returning.

On the flip side, 48% of respondents are committed to staying. Of these:

• 14% are unequivocally resolved to remain in Ukraine.
• 27% have no immediate plans to leave and are not actively considering it.
• A notable 7% have already returned to Ukraine after a period abroad.

Gendered Perspectives on Departure and Return

The survey highlights significant divergences in emigration intentions between genders. Men are notably more proactive in their departure plans, with 16% actively preparing to leave compared to just 5% of women. When it comes to passive contemplation, 29% of men and 19% of women are considering a move. Interestingly, women have returned to Ukraine in greater numbers (14%) than men (3%). The inclination to stay is also more pronounced among women, with 49% not planning to emigrate, versus 38% of men.

Age, Income, and the Shadow of Mobilization

Younger IT professionals, particularly those under 25, exhibit a higher propensity for change, with 53% considering emigration, compared to 45% of their older counterparts. This demographic also shows a greater interest in temporary overseas stays before returning. Income levels appear to have a less direct correlation with the desire to leave, with a minor exception noted among women earning over $5,000, who show a slightly higher inclination for immediate departure. For men, the presence of military exemption is a far more significant factor than financial standing; those without it are more inclined to consider leaving. Interestingly, individuals who have already completed their military service are the least likely to plan emigration, at just 31%.

Regional Divide: East and South Show Higher Emigration Intent

Geographical location plays a crucial role. Western Ukraine, encompassing cities like Lviv, Ternopil, and Chernivtsi, reports lower active emigration planning, with less than 12% of IT specialists indicating such intentions. In stark contrast, eastern and southern cities such as Dnipro, Odesa, and Mykolaiv, see 15-20% actively preparing to depart. Kharkiv presents an anomaly, mirroring Lviv's 44% emigration contemplation rate, possibly indicating that those eager to leave have already done so. Uzhhorod stands out with 20% planning to leave once borders open, perhaps reflecting a desire for a second move among those who initially relocated to Zakarpattia.

The Return Dilemma: Undecided, Determined, or Deeply Rooted?

The landscape of returnees is equally varied. A substantial 42% of those abroad remain undecided about returning to Ukraine. However, a firm 37% have decided against returning, while 20% are planning their homecoming. The number of undecided individuals has grown over the year, while the proportion intending to stay abroad has decreased. Women tend to be more inclined to return than men, who show a stronger preference for staying put. Younger professionals are more represented among those considering a return or remaining undecided, while older individuals are more likely to opt for staying. Financial considerations also weigh heavily; those spending more than they earn are more likely to plan a return, whereas those with savings are more inclined to remain abroad. The country of current residence significantly impacts return intentions: those in Hungary (42%), Croatia (37%), and Romania (36%) show the highest rates of return plans, while emigration from Canada (8%) and the US (10%) sees the lowest. European countries like Cyprus (4%), Czech Republic and Portugal (9%), Germany (13%), and Spain (15%) also exhibit low return rates.

Seeds of Departure: Why They Leave

The war and the pursuit of safety are unequivocally the paramount reasons for emigration, cited by 65% of those planning to leave and 67% of those abroad who have no intention of returning. For men, the fear of mobilization is a significant additional factor (71%). Women emphasize stress (68%) and the desire for a secure life (64%). Distrust in government and the state is another potent motivator, voiced by 69% of those still in Ukraine and 56% of those abroad. Younger individuals (under 25) are also driven by a broader set of aspirations, including exploring the world (52%), seeking new opportunities (39%), better infrastructure and social guarantees (35%), and higher salaries (34%).

Bonds That Bind: The Reasons for Staying

Family ties stand out as the most compelling reason for remaining in Ukraine, mentioned by 68% of those who stayed and 62% of those abroad considering a return. A profound belief in Ukraine's future and a desire to contribute to its reconstruction also serve as powerful anchors, cited by 65% and 54% respectively. Cultural and social adaptation plays a crucial role; 72% of those considering a return miss their lives in Ukraine – the language, culture, and familiar environment. A sense of not belonging abroad, felt by 42%, reinforces the appeal of home. Furthermore, 58% of those currently abroad acknowledge that their departure was viewed as a temporary solution from the outset. Similar sentiments resonate with those who never considered leaving: 46% are unwilling to start life anew, 39% believe Ukrainian services are superior, 32% feel uncomfortable in foreign settings, and a content 37% are simply satisfied with their current situation.